Daily commentary-每日见闻-2022.10.10

World Environment:

Politics:

United States: Domestic U.S. Transactions Review Board decides not to prosecute Facebook's parent company's acquisition of a Metaverse startup; U.S. government focuses on restoring life to hurricane-stricken people as quickly as possible; Refugees and illegal immigrants from southern border exceed what New York City can accommodate The number of refugees forced New York to declare a state of emergency; internationally the United States began to study strategies for OPEC production cuts; the United States also tentatively agreed to provide Europe with loose user data storage services; the United States will provide Ukraine with more HIMARS rocket systems; Biden reminds nuclear The risk of war is slowly increasing;
China: The 7th meeting of the 19th Central Committee in China concluded in Beijing; the government introduced more measures to reduce the burden on enterprises to help enterprises; localities are still focusing on epidemic prevention and control; internationally, China continues to strengthen cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road;
EU: The internal EU summit last week failed to reach an agreement on how to resist the energy crisis, and the confrontation between Italy and Germany has intensified; the EU is still considering further negotiations with the United States on data security issues; some high-energy-consuming European companies have begun to relocate their companies to energy low-cost and safe areas;
UK: Internationally, the UK government is easing relations with the EU;
India: The domestic Indian Coke Association has called for higher import duties to protect the domestic industry. Internationally, India has increased the security review of foreign companies in India;
Russia: Domestic Russia may continue to advance military recruitment. Internationally, Russia and Ukraine attack each other’s territorial targets and retaliate against each other;

Economy:

U.S.: Better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls increase expectations for a Fed rate hike;
China: China's 11th holiday consumption is only 40% of that in 19 years, reflecting a severe economic downturn; the latest composite PMI index also shows an economic downturn;
EU: Energy prices in the EU rose further, and the German economy was greatly affected;
Japan: Japan's economy is stable, exports fell slightly;
UK: The Bank of England maintained its repurchase of government bonds to support government bond prices. In addition, the United Kingdom faces a $4 trillion national debt renewal next year;
Russia: Russia's revenue is expected to rise due to higher crude oil prices;
Brazil: Brazil's right-wing presidential candidate Lula will be bad for the economy if he takes office;

Culture:

United States: Americans are enjoying the comfort of life brought by high income;
China: Some people began to discuss which is more important between epidemic prevention and control and economic growth. In addition, food safety issues caused Haitian to almost drop by the limit today;

Educate:

United States: The United States emphasized the need to continue to strengthen higher education;
China: Certain discourses in China discuss the importance of the share of public and private education;

Medical:

United States: Some Americans are reflecting on whether the current medical system has caused waste and fraud in over-prescribing drugs;
China: Due to the prevention and control of the epidemic, China's medical insurance fund expenditure is very large, and there may be a deficit;

Technology:

United States: The United States further restricts the export of semiconductors, chips and technologies to China, which will limit the future growth of China's semiconductor and chip industries; Musk dialect will establish a colony on Mars;
China: China launches solar observatory;
EU: EU technology development may slow down with the onset of the energy crisis;
Japan: Japan is focusing on the development of the chip industry;
India: India is gradually replacing China's manufacturing;
South Korea: South Korea's Samsung temporarily leads TSMC in technology;
Russia: Russia's weapons are far less advanced than the United States, so it is very disadvantaged in the situation in Ukraine;
Brazil: Brazil begins research on low-fertilizer crop cultivation methods;

Big event:

Covid-19: The number of new crown patients in China has rebounded, and more stringent epidemic prevention and control measures have begun in many parts of the country;
Russia Ukraine: Russia's Crimea Bridge was bombed, Russia said it would retaliate against Ukraine;
Energy crisis: OPEC will maintain high oil prices in the next 1-2 years, Goldman Sachs believes that oil prices will remain above $90 in the future;
Food crisis: floods in Pakistan, reduced food production;
Climate warming: Global warming may accelerate due to increased coal use;
Water crisis: Beijing's water resources are increasingly scarce, and the opening of the Xiongan New Area is not waiting for me;

Financial market:

Forex:

United States: Affected by the good employment data, the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations have increased, causing the dollar index to rise further, which may have an adverse impact on the operations of American companies;
China: The exchange rate of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar may fall further;
EU: The EU economy is affected by the energy crisis and cannot raise interest rates significantly, so the euro continues to weaken at around 0.98;
Japan: Japan's economy remained stable, and the yen against the dollar remained near 142;
United Kingdom: Sterling continues to weaken after rebounding, and the storm of British government bonds has not ended;
Russia: The Russian ruble continues to fall due to the possible intensification of the war;
Bonds:
United States: Affected by expectations of a rate hike, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rebounded to 3.88;
China: China's national debt remained stable, and the 10-year national debt basically remained at 2.75;
UK: Yields on British government bonds continued to rise, rising to 4.385;
Russia: Yields on Russian government bonds fell to 10% from 14% as investors turned to safety;
Commodity:
Energy: Energy prices began to diverge, and OPEC production restrictions pushed crude oil up to 92; natural gas prices continued to fall; coal prices fell slightly to around $385; crude oil is expected to rise further, and natural gas and coal have fluctuated so far. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine becomes more tense, coal prices will rise further;
Precious metals: Gold and silver prices continue to pull back, and risk aversion has weakened, unless. . .
Base metals: Affected by the expected slowdown in the global economy, the prices of base metals continued to correct.
Agricultural products: The bird flu outbreak in Europe has killed more than 10 million poultry, and the price of chicken and eggs is expected to continue to rise; staple food prices remain stable, but remain high;
Freight: Due to the decrease in international trade volume, the freight price has been adjusted back;

Stock:
US: US stocks rose slightly last week, and if the Fed continues to raise interest rates, US stocks still have room to fall;
China: The Shanghai Stock Exchange fell below 3,000 points. Although China's economy has bottomed out, the stock investment market is still waiting for more government policies;
EU: European stocks edged lower as the energy crisis will hurt corporate earnings;
Crypto:
Bit: Bitcoin is still bottoming around 19,000, waiting for the end of the Fed rate hike;
Ether: Ether is still bottoming around 1300, waiting for the end of the Fed rate hike;
Real estate:
US: US housing prices remain stable, but Goldman Sachs sees a 10% drop in the next 2 years;
China: China's real estate prices have bottomed out and are slowly recovering; Hong Kong's real estate prices are 20% weaker by Goldman Sachs;
EU: EU property prices remain stable;
UK: UK property prices have peaked for a short time;
India: Affected by the booming Indian economy, Indian property prices are still rising;
Brazil: Brazilian property prices remain firm on strong exports;
Private Equity:
United States: The private equity industry in the United States is gradually shrinking, mainly affected by the secondary market;
China: The scale of China's private equity industry is stable at current levels;
Luxury:
United States: Nike’s collaborations with artists are not selling well in the United States;
China: Diamond auction prices in Hong Kong continue to rise despite bad economic conditions;
Virtual item:
NFT prices continue to weaken;
AI cartography has driven down the prices of many paintings;

Cycle:

Political cycle:
United States: The United States is shifting from openness to protectionism;
China: China is reorganizing the logic of society with Chinese characteristics;
EU: The EU is moving from a union cycle to a division cycle;
Japan: Japan is moving from a neutral cycle to a United States cycle;
UK: The UK is shifting from openness to protectionism;
India: India is shifting from focusing on internal affairs to exerting international influence;
Russia: Russia is shifting from centrism to left;
Economic cycle:
United States: The United States is in an economic upswing;
China: China is still in an economic downturn;
EU: The EU is in the midst of an economic downturn;
Russia: Russia is in an economic downturn;
Interest rate cycle:
United States: The United States is in a rate hike cycle;
China: China is in the middle of a rate cut cycle;
EU: The EU is in a rate hike cycle;
Japan: Japan is in the midst of a rate hike cycle;
UK: The UK is in the middle of a rate hike cycle;
India: India is in the middle of a rate hike cycle;
Canada: Canada is in the middle of a rate hike cycle;
South Korea: South Korea is in the middle of a rate hike cycle;
Russia: Russia is in a rate hike cycle;
Brazil: Brazil is in a rate hike cycle;
Credit Cycle:
United States: The United States is in a credit contraction cycle;
China: China is in a credit expansion cycle;
EU: The EU is in a credit contraction cycle;
Computing power cycle:
United States: The United States is in a period of rapid increase in computing power;
China: China is in a period of slow growth in computing power;
EU: The EU is in a cycle of slow growth in computing power;
Russia: Russia is in the cycle of reducing computing power;
Energy Cycle:
United States: The United States is in an energy expansion cycle;
China: China is in an energy expansion cycle;
EU: The EU is in an energy contraction cycle;
Russia: Russia is in an energy contraction cycle;
Brazil: Brazil is in an energy contraction cycle;
Food Cycle:
United States: The United States is in a food expansion cycle;
China: China is in a food expansion cycle;
EU: The EU is in a food contraction cycle;
Russia: Russia is in a food contraction cycle;
Forex Cycle:

United States: The dollar is in a rising cycle;
China: RMB is in a declining cycle;
EU: The euro is in a downward cycle;
Japan: The yen is in a falling cycle;
UK: GBP is in a down cycle;
India: Rupee is on an upward cycle;
Canada: The Canadian dollar is in a rising cycle;
South Korea: the won is in a declining cycle;
Russia: the ruble is in a declining cycle;
Brazil: the real is on the rise;

Principle:

Principles of life: do what you want to do;
Working principle: continuously improve the efficiency of work;
Family principle: pay more for your family;
Health principles: adequate sleep and moderate exercise;

世界环境：

政治：
美国：国内美国交易审查委员会决定不起诉脸书母公司对一家元宇宙初创公司的并购；美国政府聚焦于尽快恢复飓风受灾区人民的生活；来自南方边境的难民和非法移民超过纽约市可以容纳的难民人数，迫使纽约宣布紧急状态；国际上美国开始研究针对欧佩克减产的策略；美国也初步同意为欧洲提供宽松的用户数据存储服务；美国将为乌克兰提供更多的HIMARS火箭系统；拜登提醒核战争的风险在缓慢加大；
中国：国内19届中央委员会7次会议在北京闭幕；政府出台更多企业减负措施，帮助企业；各地仍在抓疫情防控；国际上中国继续加强于一带一路国家的合作；
欧盟：内部欧盟上周峰会未能对如何抵御能源危机达成一致，意大利和德国的对立加剧；国际方面欧盟还在思考就数据安全问题与美国进一步谈判；一些高能耗欧洲企业开始将公司搬迁到能源成本低且安全的地区；
英国：国际方面英国政府在缓和个欧盟的关系；
印度：国内印度焦炭协会呼吁提高进口关税保护本国行业。国际方面印度加大对外资企业在印度的安全审查；
俄罗斯：国内俄罗斯可能继续推进征兵，国际方面俄罗斯和乌克兰相互攻击对方领土目标，相互报复；
经济：
美国：美国非农就业人数好于预期，增加了美联储加息的预期；
中国：中国十一假期消费仅为19年的40%，体现出了经济的严重下滑；最新的综合PMI指数也显示了经济的下滑；
欧盟：欧盟能源价格进一步上涨，德国经济受到很大影响；
日本：日本经济稳定，出口小幅下跌；
英国：英国央行维持对国债的回购，用以支撑国债价格。另外英国明年面临4万亿美元的国债续期；
俄罗斯：受原油价格上涨的影响，俄罗斯收入预期增加；
巴西：巴西右翼总统候选人Lula如果上台将不利于经济；
文化：
美国：美国人在享受高收入带来的生活的惬意；
中国：一部分人开始讨论疫情防控和经济增长之间哪个更重要，另外食品安全问题造成海天今天的几乎跌停；
教育：
美国：美国各方面强调要继续加强高等教育；
中国：中国某些言论在讨论公立和私立教育比重的重要性；
医疗：
美国：一部分美国人在反思现在医疗体系是否造成了过度开药的浪费和务舞弊；
中国：因为疫情防控，中国医保基金支出非常大，可能出现赤字；
科技：
美国：美国进一步限制半导体、芯片及技术对中国的出口，造成中国半导体、芯片行业未来增速受限；马斯克方言将在火星建立殖民地；
中国：中国发射太阳观测器；
欧盟：欧盟科技发展可能随着能源危机的爆发而放缓；
日本：日本在着力芯片产业的发展；
印度：印度在逐渐替代中国的制造业；
韩国：韩国的三星在技术上暂时领先台积电；
俄罗斯：俄罗斯的武器先进水平远低于美国，因此在乌克兰的局势上非常吃亏；
巴西：巴西开始研究低化肥农作物种植方法；

大事件：

新冠：中国新冠患者数量有所反弹，国内多地开始更严厉的疫情防控；
俄罗斯乌克兰：俄罗斯的克里米亚大桥被炸，俄罗斯说要报复乌克兰；
能源危机：欧佩克在未来1-2年都会维持高油价，高盛认为未来油价将保持在90美元以上；
食物危机：巴基斯坦遭受洪水，粮食减产；
气候变暖：由于煤炭用量的增加，全球气候变暖可能加速；
水危机：北京的水资源日益匮乏，雄安新区的启用时不我待；

金融市场：

外汇：
美国：受好的就业数据的影响，美联储加息预期增加，导致美元指数进一步走高，可能对美国企业的经营产生不利影响；
中国：人民币对美元的汇率可能会进一步下降；
欧盟：欧盟经济受能源危机影响，无法大幅加息，因此欧元持续走弱在0.98左右；
日本：日本经济保持稳定，日元对美元保持在142附近；
英国：英镑反弹之后继续走弱，英国的国债风波没有结束；
俄罗斯：受战争可能加剧的影响，俄罗斯卢布汇率继续走低；
债券：
美国：受加息预期影响，美国10年期国债收益率出现反弹至3.88;
中国：中国国债保持稳定，10年期国债基本维持在2.75;
英国：英国国债的收益率继续上升，上升到4.385；
俄罗斯：俄罗斯国债收益率从14%下跌至10%，因为投资者开始避险；
商品：
能源：能源价格开始分化，欧佩克限产推高原油到92；天气然价格持续回落；煤炭价格稍微回落到385美元左右；预计原油将进一步上涨，天气然和煤炭在目前为止震荡。一旦俄乌局势更加紧张，煤炭价格将进一步上升；
贵金属：金、银价格继续回调，避险情绪有所减弱，除非。。。
基本金属：受全球经济放缓预期的影响，基本金属的价格继续回调。
农产品：欧洲爆发禽流感，扑杀了1千多万的家禽，人们预计鸡肉和鸡蛋的价格将持续上升；主要粮食价格保持稳定，但是仍然保持高位；
运费：受国际贸易量下降，运费价格有所回调；
股票：
美国：美股上周稍微上涨，如果美联储继续加息，那么美股仍然有下跌空间；
中国：上证跌破3000点，虽然中国经济已经触底，但是股票投资市场仍在等待政府更多的政策；
欧盟：欧洲股市小幅下跌，因为能源危机将损害企业的收益；
虚拟货币：
比特：比特币仍在19000左右筑底，等待美联储加息结束；
以太：以太币仍在1300左右筑底，等待美联储加息结束；
房地产：
美国：美国房产价格保持稳定，但是高盛认为会下跌10%在未来2年；
中国：中国房产价格已经触底，在缓慢回升过程中；香港房价被高盛看衰20%；
欧盟：欧盟房产价格保持稳定；
英国：英国房产价格已经短期触顶；
印度：受印度经济蓬勃发展影响，印度房产价格仍在上涨；
巴西：受强劲出口的影响，巴西房产价格保持坚挺；
私募股权：
美国：美国私募股权行业在逐渐收缩，主要受二级市场影响；
中国：中国私募股权行业规模稳定在目前水平；
奢侈品：
美国：Nike跟艺术家合作的款式在美国销量不好；
中国：钻石在香港的拍卖价格继续上涨，尽管经济形势不好；
虚拟物品：
NFT价格继续走弱；
AI制图使得很多画作价格走低；

周期：

政治周期：
美国：美国正在从开放主义向保护主义转变；
中国：中国正在重新梳理中国特色社会的逻辑；
欧盟：欧盟正在从联合周期走向分裂周期；
日本：日本正在从中立周期走向联美周期；
英国：英国正在从开放主义向保护主义转变；
印度：印度正在从专注于内政向施展国际影响力转变；
俄罗斯：俄罗斯正在从中间主义向左倾转变；
经济周期：
美国：美国在经济上行周期中；
中国：中国仍然在经济下行周期中；
欧盟：欧盟在经济下降周期中；
俄罗斯：俄罗斯在经济下行周期中；
利率周期：
美国：美国在加息周期中；
中国：中国在降息周期中；
欧盟：欧盟在加息周期中；
日本：日本在加息周期中；
英国：英国在加息周期中；
印度：印度在加息周期中；
加拿大：加拿大在加息周期中；
韩国：韩国在加息周期中；
俄罗斯：俄罗斯在加息周期中；
巴西：巴西在加息周期中；
信贷周期：
美国：美国在信贷收缩周期中；
中国：中国在信贷扩张周期中；
欧盟：欧盟在信贷收缩周期中；
算力周期：
美国：美国在算力快速增加周期中；
中国：中国在算力慢速增加周期中；
欧盟：欧盟在算力慢速增加周期中；
俄罗斯：俄罗斯在算力降低周期中；
能源周期：
美国：美国在能源扩张周期中；
中国：中国在能源扩张周期中；
欧盟：欧盟在能源收缩周期中；
俄罗斯：俄罗斯在能源收缩周期中；
巴西：巴西在能源收缩周期中；
食物周期：
美国：美国在食物扩张周期中；
中国：中国在食物扩张周期中；
欧盟：欧盟在食物收缩周期中；
俄罗斯：俄罗斯在食物收缩周期中；
外汇周期：
美国：美元在上涨周期；
中国：人民币在下降周期；
欧盟：欧元在下降周期；
日本：日元在下降周期；
英国：英镑在下降周期；
印度：卢比在上升周期；
加拿大：加元在上升周期；
韩国：韩元在下降周期；
俄罗斯：卢布在下降周期；
巴西：雷亚尔在上升周期；

原则：

生活原则：做自己想做的事情；
工作原则：不断提高工作的效率；
家庭原则：多为家人付出；
健康原则：充分的睡眠以及适量的运动；