1.Covid:
Shanghai and Beijing are easing lockdown policy by allow residents back to work and reopen of shopping malls. This is due to GDP lost pressure as well as high direct cost associated to covid test and quarantine. I expect people life will be fully back to normal by mid June in Shanghai and Beijing as new covid cases no.continue to drop.
2.Monkeypox:
Total infection no. is growing to over 200 cases globally reported by
WHO. WHO is running to stockup small pox vaccine to prevent for outbreakof monkeypox pandemic. However, according to Murphy's Law, it is really hard to stop bad thing happen.
3.Food crisis:
After wheat shortage by about 2-3milion MT and sugar export bans,Thailand and Vietnam is planing for rice price increase for more than 10%. India may join the action as well. Global rice demand is around 518millino MT this year and there is already about 4million MT supply gap this year.After grains price go up, I expect meat price will go up as well. In short, the food shortage situation is getting worse.
4.Energy crisis:
As Europe is walking away from Russian oil and gas, Europe is import more from US and push US gas price to new high in recent years. This year, scientist expect we will have a hotter summer, meaning more energywould be consumed. So we may see energy price further increase and putmore pressure to current global economy.
5.US economy:
Strong consumer spending showed US economy's strong resilence. Economist still holding full year GDP growth expectation at 3.5% for 2022.
6.China economy:
As JP Morgan lower its forecast for Chinese GDP growth to 3.7%. China only advances US GDP growth by 0.2%. The covid expect to cost China about 2 trillion RMB GDP lost. It is huge. The lesson China should learnfrom this would be keep moving on.
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