As China lost about 2 months of work and life due to covid lockdown, we need to work and live harder to catch up with the world. However, as we are facing cumulating recession risk, we need to prepare for this as well.
Followings are the key issues we need to pay attention to:
1.Covid:
As Beijing and Shanghai lifted the lockdown for covid today, it is said people are gathering to celebrate in some communities in Shanghai. I expect covid case may breakout again in some area, but lockdowns will not come back due to huge economic cost and life burden.
Total new covid case no. in China
2.Monkeypox:
Total monkeypox case no. continue to grow as more than 23 countries reported more than 250 cases. Countries are running to stock up smallpox vaccines to prevent for potential monkeypox breakout.
3.Russia and Ukraine:
Russia reports that it push forward its military action in more cities in Ukraine and it is open to a peace talk with Ukraine. Based on previous conversation, if Ukraine could give up some of its land and declare independent from NATO, Russia may agree to cease fire.
4.Food crisis:
Agriculture products prices
After wheat, sugar, rice, we may face more agriculture products shortage given the hot summer. What make the situation worse is that more fund are betting on agriculture price increase this year and push up the agricultural products prices.
5.Energy crisis:
We are fully relay on OPEC and US oil and gas now given sanction on Russia. Since high energy price will benefit OPEC and US, we are not sure when the energy crisis would be over yet.
6.US economy:
US spending still robust and expect US economy will keep grow.
7.China economy:
As the covid curb eased in Beijing and Shanghai, we will see economy rebound in June. This will also lead to higher CPI.
8.Vietnam economy:
Vietnam retail sales increased by 22.6% in May yoy. Comparing with 11.1% decrease in China, it shows Vietnam picks more orders from China.
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