Daily commentary-2022.6.4

Very sad for the train accident today and caused 5 death. Sincere condolences to them.

1.Covid:
China is moving over Covid as business are opening up, however, the speed is still slow in Beijing since covid-zero still in place. One simple example is that it took about 30mins(used to be 1 min) to find a restuarant which were still open and cooked fresh dished for lunch today. Given the consumption is about 56% of total Chinese GDP, we need to open up local retail business asap to boost economy.

2.Monkeypox:
Total case no. continue to increase.

3.Russia and Ukraine:
One thing need to notice is news war and internet war are the key battle field for modern war. If some one want to get into war, they would better get themselves prepared for news war and internet war.

4.Food crisis:
Food price in China is raising slowly. Thanks for cheap pork price which account for 60% of total animal protein consumption in China. However, pork price is already on the rising. What will happen if food price increase over 20% in China this year? We already saw more than 10% price increase on eggs and more than 20% price increase on fresh vegetables. More price increase may be on the way.

5.Energy crisis:
Although OPEC plan to increase production, crude price raise strongly showing distrust on OPEC's fufilment. There are rumors that Russia put a Chinese speaking manager to marketing role and people guess Russia will sell more oil to China. I would suggest China cust the price to 50% of current market price and buy more to lower inflation pressure.

6.US economy:
US economy is still strong and their GDP growth may outpace Chinese GDP this year.

7.China economy:
Given retails are still lockdown in Beijing and Shanghai, economy recover still need more time which we really don't have now.