Daily commentary-2022.6.6

1.Covid:
There are signs of new breakout of Covid in Shanghai recently and many communities are lockdown again. Pls avoid travel to Shanghai recently. We hope authorities will not ban economy again, since the society is very fragile economically and mentally now.

2.Monkeypox:
China hasn't reported any monkeypox case yet. But there would be some after we reopen international flight. So people who haven't vaccined for small pox yet should get small pox vaccine before international flight open up.

3.Russia and Ukraine:
Ukraine took back part of Donbas city. It seems Germany and some countries hope Russia could conque Ukraine soon, so world could go back to orderly status with cheap commodities. Not sure whether Ukraine could defeat Russia under this situation.

4.Food crisis:
More countries ban wheat export given tight food supply and make food crisis worse. Fertilizer price continue to grow due to lack of supply from Russia.

5.Energy crisis:
Coal price increased more than 50% this year globally due to increase demand on coal on back of lack of natural gas and high oil price. However, tight coal supply can't be settled soon due to lack of oil for transport coal to consumer.

6.US economy:
US 10 yrs bond yield increase more than 5% this week and make it closer to 3%. As US employment number is strong, people are expecting Fed to hike interest rate soon for 50bps. On the other hand, international companies such as Telsa and Apple felt the headwind from global economy slow down. They are starting to consider layoff to prepare themselves for these headwind. Then we may see the economy slow down spiral happen in Q4 2022 in US.

7.China economy:
As there are rumors that Shanghai lockdown is coming back, it will put burden on economy for sure. If Shanghai lockdown happen again in June, we may face the biggest economic recession in Q2 2022. So it is better not happen. There are some sector with certainty in China, which is infrastructure. If China consumption get worse, Chinese government will put more money to infrustructure sector for sure.

8.Venture capital:
As global stock market took hits recently, this casued many startup companies' devalued recently. This is a bad new for venture capital funds, since they may face lower IRR and harder to close new fund. However, given cyclical of global economy, it is good opportunity for fund swith sufficient cash to invest.