How an industry become prosperous?-一个行业是如何兴起的？-2022.11.24 We had experience the booming of PC industry, laptop industry, smartphone industry, EV industry and etc.It may seems consumers' interests come from nowhere and suddenly boomed.This may not be the case. One industry wants to boom, it has to acquire three foundations. 1.ready products;2.people have real needs;3.government's supports;1.Ready products:the products have to be at leat 10x better user experience than previous products. The product need to be fun, easy, reliable. 2.People have real needs:people has all kinds of needs. When economy is good, people want to have the most fancy products. When economy is bad, people reduce their expense and try to maintain their living standard.People always follow the herd.3.Governments supports: government may provide stimulus for certain products and would increase people's enthusiasm for certain products.Nornamlgovernment stimulus include tax cut, subsidize, promoting and etc.When an industry have these foundations, this industry may boom soon.

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2022.11.23 Global environment:Politics:US:GOP is on the track to block Biden's action. However, competition with China is unchangeable due to US citizen's interests. Senate put pressure on Biden to provide drones to Ukraine to fight down Russia.China:China local politics is very stable now and gov focuses on form more allies to boost regional politics.UK:New Prime Minister works to restore confidence from citizens. Theyalso worked on tax increase and gov spending cuts.New government need to convince people that they are capable of restore credibility of the UK gov.EU:EU agreed to put a price cap on natural gas price.Japan:Japan focused on South Korea:Economy:

The Macro and Micro structure of stock market-股票市场的宏观和微观结构-2022.11.23 The movement of stock market is the result of all industry participants' joint action. In order to predict the stock market's movement, we need to understand the principle of each major participant.Macro structure of stock market:The stock market industry chain is relative long which includes:1.Regulators:The aim of regulator is to protect investor and maintain the fairness and efficiency of the overall market. SEC may investigateany individual or legal entity for their wrong doing. The individual or entity being investigated would be tagged untrusted one. 2.Exchanges:The aim of exchange is to provide the most efficient and transparent trading platform for all participants. Exchange may list ordelist any legal entity to provide best trading experience and eliminate potential risk for investors. Exchange is a profit organization charging listing fee yearly.3.Exchange members:Exchange members is the entity registered with Exchange and get direct access to exchange with low fee.4.Brokers5.Listed companies6.Hardware provider7.Software provider8.Custodian provider9.Credit provider10.Hedge fund11.Long only Fund12.Mutual fund13.ETF fund14.Macro Fund15.High Frequency Fund16.Public Fund17.Private Fund18.Inside Traders19.Retail traderMicro structure 

How to forecast an industry growth?如何预测一个行业的增长率？-2022.11.22 Why we want to forecast industry growth? Since we want to know how big acompany may grow to. We don't want to miss next TSLA or next Tencent. When we analyze an industry growth, we need to identify the driver of industry and identify who is the buyer and how is the seller.For example，we are stuyding AI industry for example.

How to forecast interest rate？如何预测一国利率？ Interest rate is the key tool for government to adjust money supply to economy.The easiest way to predict is to follow the Central bank's announcement.Other ways including monitor economy, labor market, bond market and stock market to timing the Central Bank's movement.