Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.11.1 Global environment:Big events:Cycles:GDP:Interest Rate:Inflation:Population:Equity: Global equity has been increasing in the last 12 months. The main driver which I attributed to inflow of oil money from middle east investors. As the oil price declining, the money inflow from middle east would slow down, and the equity market may face corrections. So I guess we are at the peak of equity market for this 12 months.Fixed income: As Fed's interest rate hike may hit the end, fixed income price would approaching the bottom. However, we don't know when Fed may cut the rate. So fixed income price would stay bottom for a while before it pick up again.FX: USD has been quite strong in last 2 yrs due to interest rate hike by Fed. As we approaching the end of interesting hiking cycle. 

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.10.30 Global environments:Politics:Economy:Culture:Big events:Hamas-Israel conflict:Cycles:Things need to figure out:Stocks: Tesla: Where is Tesla stocks price now putting into perspective of its life cycle? Where is its sales now putting into perspective of its life cycle? I believe the Eletric Vehicle is hitting its top in near term. China is the main market for Electric car now, which accounts for more than 70% of global Electric Vehicle sales. Chinese purchasing power is almost at its peak level, if no further stimulus. It seems Tesla is already hit the Alphabet:How to evaluate the organic growth rate of economy?What is economy? Economy is the summary of total sales of one society. It is always very hard to evaluate the totle sales of one society. How to forecast the real purchasing power of one country?

Analysis on property market-房地产市场分析-2023.10.28 House is the essential needs for human being. Due to house is an non-renewable resources, the house price would become higher and higher driven mainly by inflation. Depending on market system, there are many different types of real estate market systems. Here follow to focus on three housing markets mainly.Due to limited knowledge, i will limit my defination on real estate to mainly to residential properties. 1.Singapore: Due to historical reason, the governor want to satisfy the residential needs of most residents. That lead to their strategy of Housing Developemnt Board, which build real estate at thin or no profit to satisfy the basic needs of citizens. The outlook and public areas and design of these HDB properties are not as good as private developed properties, but it is much cheaper than private developed properties. The price difference is about 200% and normally the price gap is about stable. High price HDB properties are larg ones with more rooms and at good location. The resale rule of HDB is only could be resale to same qulified buyers. 2.China: Chinese property market has been three stages. We are in the third stage now. In previous stage, Chinese property price was mainly provided by private market. For next stage, it will be the mixed supply of government controlled market and private market. The government controled market is

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.10.26 Global environments:Politics:Big events:Palestine-Israel conflict: it has been about 2 weeks since the conflict start and Israel pledged a revenge to Gaza area. Iran is supporting Hamas and US is supporting Israel. So it is the conflict between Iran and US actually. A wide spread conflict in Middle East would mean low oil supply volume and high oil price. While US and EU as well as other energy import countries are suffering from high oil price. It is in US interest to lower oil price. So US and EU will try their best to control this conflict and keep oil price low. So I don't think oil price will go above to 100 level or higher. If the oil price do go that high level, Fed will continue to hike rates to cool downn the inflation, so the oil demands will come down. Oil price will fall eventually.Russia-Ukraine conflict: is has been about 1.6 yrs for Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia started the conflict aiming to fight back on the potential threats from NATO expending to Ukraine. It was expected to be a lightning attack. However, it turned out to a long-lasting military action for Russia to fight with Ukraine. Two main reasons contribute to this long-term war. First, Russia is over-estimated it military strength and under-estimated Ukrainian military strength. Second, Ukraine get support from US and EU for more than 200billion USD, which is almost the same amount Russia put on war. War is the mixed result of military, economy, politics factors. For military, it seems Russsia has advantages on miliarty training and commanding. For economy, it seems US and EU have advantages. For politics, it seems Ukraine has advantages. So overall, it seems Russia may lost this war and come back to negotiation table and Putin step down. After this war, Russia would be further weakened and may not be able to protect its homeland eventually and need to open further up its economy. JVs would goes to Russia to run the business and make commodities price go lower.Cycles:Interest rate cycles:Commodity cycles:

Daily commentary-2023.10.20 Global environments:Politics:Big events:Palestine-Israel conflict: Israel is storming Gaza strip and Iran is critisizing Isreal of killing citizens. Global market is panic on current conflict may spread to rest of Middle East area and cause the oil supply disruptions. This pushed oil price up by almost 8% in past week. My understanding on this is that this conflict will not further spread due to good oil price. Other countries will not miss this good earning period. US has a strong interests on cheap oil, so it has an interest to control the middle east conflict from spread out. So do EU, who are lack of oil. China and Russia want blame US for middle east conflict and take the burden away from current Russia - Ukraine conflict.Russia-Ukraine conflict:after about 1.6 yrs of invasion, Ukraine is taking counteroffense now to recover some of the lost territory. War capital for Russia is coming from oil and energy revenue. War capital for Ukraine is coming from subsides from US and EU. However, US and