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2023-08-03
Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.8.2
Global environment:Politics:US:main conflicts are people's demands on lower inflation against high goods prices. The conflicts between rich and poor are getting larger. How to raise the income of ordinary people and lower goods costs would be the key topic for election. Internationally, the main conflicts are between US and China regarding domination on cutting edge techology.China:main conflicts are also ordinary people's demands on pay raise vs slowing down economy. China government would need to boost economy to satisfy people's demands. Internationally, the main conflicts are between US and China on who dominate the latest technology.Economy:US:the main conflicts are between limited organic grwoth on demands vs sufficient capital.China:the main conflicts are between strong control on economy vs needs for economy growth.India:Culture:US:the main conflicts are required equal rights by normal people with privilage enjoyed by rich classes.China:the main conflicts are between non-belief of X generation and strong belief from old generation. X generation are more open in mind and don't have strong believes on idealology.Education:tbdTechnology:tbdMedicare:tbdBig events:Russia-Ukraine conflict:Ukraine is carrying out counteroffensive but are restricted by limited weaponry. Ukraine is using drones to attack Russia. US and UK want Ukraine could take back territory occupied by Russia and hold as long as enough to get Russia back to an negotiation table. Cycles:War:tbdEpidemic:tdb
2023年08月03日
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2023-08-01
Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.7.28
Global environment:Politics:US:Biden is building election advantage through claim sucess on economy growth and disperse fears of potential recession. Trump is fighting with potential legal cases due to fake claims and capital riots. The chance for Trump get elected is lesser now due to ongoing law suit. US still focuses on curbing Chinese growth and strengthening ties with asian allies. US is still shoring up Ukraine by providing more fund and weaponaries to them. While trying to limits income of Russia by pressing energy price. US's international political aim is to defeat China and Russia from further growth and maintain its lead position globally. Internally, Biden are building his voter team by claiming his success on economy growth.China:China is focusing on strengthen ties with Russia and EU. Trying to expand business scale with Russia and EU. Internally, Chinese gov is increasing satisfaction of citizens.EU:EU try to draw a line on sands with China and Russia, while leaning to US on political issues. EU is putting all efforts on national securities, such as energy, food, etc.Japan:Japan closely allied with US on political and economic interest aiming to strengthen its security overall. Internally Japan is still conservative politics. Not that liberal. UK:UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is visiting US working on economy cooperation on New Energy and Cutting edge technology industries. UK conservative party is facing defeat due to recent India:India is closely allied with western. In return, western countries increased their investment Mexico: Mexico is taking advantage of China decoupling and shoring up US demands on manufacturing stuff.Economy:US: US economy is stronger than expected. Although GDP is not accurate indicator of economy, US Q2 GDP is about 2.6% increase. Culture:tbdEducation:tbdTechnology:tbdMedicare:tbd
2023年08月01日
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2023-06-14
交易项目-Trading Pipeline-2023.6.14-江苏固立得光电公司融资需求
B轮融资:江苏xxx光电公司:1.行业前景:光电子器件(国内简称光芯片)是全球半导体行业的一个重要细分赛道,随着光电半导体产业的蓬勃发展,光芯片作为产业链上游核心元器件,目前已经广泛应用于通信、工业、消费等众多领域。产品适用领域仍在快速增加,行业前景广阔。2.公司投资亮点:公司是一家专业从事第三代化合物(氮化镓 GaN、氮化铝镓AIGaN、碳化硅Sic)光电半导体的高新技术企业。总部位于江苏,研发中心位于台湾,并在欧洲、美国、东南亚设立营销中心。 公司产品历经17年研发积累和可靠性验证,多款芯片技术国际领先(P光功率密度 DUV12倍于竞品芯片,UVB19倍于竞品芯片)且已规模化生产,目前已联合中国科学院、中国检测院、中国粮科院、中国药材研究院进行产业合作。公司产品集芯片外延、芯片制程、芯片封测、 芯片模组封测、驱动技术、数字集成技术、二次光学技术等,奠定全球领先的地位。 已合作客户有宁德时代,特斯拉、苹果,华为,三星,比亚迪,佳能、中国移动等。3.本轮估值逻辑和合理性;本轮融资公司投前10亿人民币,融资1亿人民币。按照2023年0.37亿净利润计算,本轮PE为26.83倍。公司22年0.4亿收入,0.08亿净利润,净利润率20%;2023年预1.5亿收入,0.37亿净利润,净利润率25%;2024年预测3.5亿收入,0.9亿净利润,净利润率26%;2025年预测4.5亿收入,1.2亿净利润,净利润率26%;26年和27年收入预测为5.7亿和7.2亿,净利润预测为1.6亿和2亿。4.可比公司;瑞丰光电有相关紫外线业务。2022年瑞丰光电动态市盈率范围在70-140倍之间。5.上市确定性;公司预计2025年申报科创板,2026年登陆科创板。6.预计投资回报率:MOIC:4.1; IRR:42%。(假设27年退出时PE为40x)MOIC:6.1; IRR:57%。(假设27年退出时PE为60x)7.截止日期;2023年9月8.现有投资机构:创始人、常州龙城英才创业投资有限公司(国资)等9.本轮融资用途:固定资产、研发、材料等联系人:何志强电话:13671273860微信:bradleyhe9.融资用途:芯片制程、封测等固定资产投入2.2亿;研发0.45亿,材料投入0.6亿,市场0.3亿。为了满足资金需求,本轮融资交割后,会开始下一轮融资。
2023年06月14日
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2023-05-25
About investment-有关投资-2023.5.25
Investments are always associated with returns and risk. What is investment return? investment return is the gain you get from investment. What is investment risk? Investment risk are losses from investments.If we want to achieve outstanding investment results, we need to boost our return and reduce our loss. Regarding reduce loss, we need to manage the following risks: 1. market risk; 2.credit risk; 3. operation risk; 4.liquidity risk; 5.other risks;1.market risk: market risk are risks due to market overall factors changes. These market factors include: interest rate, stimulus, tax rate, subsidizes, capital spending, PMI, which are active market factors. GDP,
2023年05月25日
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2023-05-11
Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.5.10
Global environment:Politics:US:China:EU:Japan:India:UK:Canada:Canada expeled a Chinese diploma due to threaten Canadian citizens. China did the same with Canadian diploma in equal treatment. The tension between Canada and China is esscalating quickly. This may affect the total relationship between two countires.Economy:US:US inflation lower than expectation indicates inflation is cooling down in US as well as globally. This is on the track allow Fed to pause their rate hike. So we can come to the conclusion that Fed rate hike cycle is almost over and we may get into rate cut cycle later. Historically, rate could keep at the peak level for about 1 year depends on economy growth. When Fed starts to cut rate, this would make Bond and Equity attractive again and may boost Bond and Equity price. Also this may push up commodity prices and house price. For FX, US dollar would lower in spot but higher in forward rates. China:China real estate market is increasing marginally in May. China auto market is almost flat. Chinese service market is picking up quickly. Overall, China economy is still on the track of rebounding. This trend may continue till end of this year without extra stimulus.EU:Japan:India:UK:Canda:Culture:Technology:Education:Medi-care:Military:US:US keeps increasing military spending.China:EU:Japan:India:UK:Canda:
2023年05月11日
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